Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52914.251814 56093.411908 59280.660793 62713.156442 66302.688969 69943.003591 73911.304521
2024-10-20 47440.973158 52258.530199 57233.236243 62745.665833 68674.469704 74850.931819 81763.377647
2024-10-27 43388.976377 49276.975715 55500.723181 62552.315971 70302.393194 78543.013590 87949.918550
2024-11-03 41100.539989 47870.369790 55164.836311 63580.381238 72991.968682 83163.751430 94958.136647
2024-11-10 39100.654049 46565.529501 54745.474393 64332.248159 75215.981511 87144.134555 101160.098284
2024-11-17 37182.998149 45192.309328 54104.484093 64699.048242 76890.162389 90418.361203 106502.597862
2024-11-24 35280.141820 43706.443013 53217.971149 64675.271734 78023.988707 93006.469645 111011.715741
2024-12-01 33781.658639 42597.379139 52681.020703 64975.412308 79462.578138 95891.592358 115826.928109
2024-12-08 32286.081830 41408.610051 51975.978950 65009.179819 80532.108988 98307.305186 120071.899692
2024-12-15 31415.698854 40918.178633 52052.350415 65927.442748 82612.073387 101883.290559 125669.486734
2024-12-22 30041.810605 39749.721684 51257.897412 65750.131919 83345.803800 103846.161199 129352.790741
2024-12-29 29418.264942 39471.915501 51513.304472 66817.387699 85556.310069 107554.112349 135114.679722
2025-01-05 28514.714771 38822.924311 51302.625361 67316.331111 87096.079881 110496.968726 140025.184317
2025-01-12 27446.428775 37925.656535 50750.807844 67366.768377 88070.336731 112754.532552 144123.129961
2025-01-19 26329.052857 36921.659027 50025.908130 67165.390591 88705.271984 114581.925808 147693.489555
2025-01-26 25876.435352 36755.286369 50339.999932 68254.195790 90934.445660 118358.575606 153657.616400
2025-02-02 25323.546726 36432.888608 50434.934199 69050.008208 92789.777767 121678.854986 159078.804028
2025-02-09 24626.617247 35892.572582 50226.052306 69438.170091 94118.856857 124345.154862 163702.036988
2025-02-16 23793.314717 35139.978030 49714.845819 69413.017405 94905.252338 126326.434954 167475.870940
2025-02-23 23146.502770 34615.783422 49481.800456 69730.598236 96116.934741 128835.618760 171915.047812
2025-03-02 22419.404009 33956.913734 49048.485309 69766.326951 96951.408448 130863.014058 175752.818251
2025-03-09 22097.225708 33843.364635 49330.859646 70737.835957 98996.334267 134429.997367 181551.704093
2025-03-16 21344.617958 33105.971779 48754.134031 70550.255571 99517.203407 136050.539116 184885.995309